Predictable Not Beatable
A couple days to marinade over the Bills victory over the Dolphins on Sunday.
Media outlets have talked about the Bills miscues, lack of timing, and the need to tighten up if they are going to advance further in the coming weeks. All true, but after a complete season the body of work pretty much shows this game wasn’t an exception, it was a norm. It was in alignment with what we saw in the first Dolphins game (injuries aside), in the Packers’ game on Sunday night (which they did win), and the loss to Minnesota and the Jets. It also aligns with what I’ve said is part of the DNA of the 2022 Buffalo Bills — their biggest opponent is themselves.
Keep in mind this isn’t a knock – it’s just a statement. On observation. This edition of the Bills almost analyzes what does it take to beat you? Does that, and then no more. The second victory against the Dolphins was a game ending field goal in the snow. It was similar with the Jets in both games. In fact only the Titans and Bears games could be described as comfortable. Does that make them beatable? Not necessarily so. Predictable, maybe, but not beatable. In playoffs the quality of the opposition is stepped up, and as it is often said any given playoff Sunday anyone can beat anyone (see also the Jaguars/Chargers); so everyone is technically beatable in the grand scheme of things. The Bills are no more so than any of the other teams remaining.
Allen has, in fact, cleaned up his red zone play. There are fewer reckless throws than what we saw in October and November, and the statistics show it. The interceptions in the Dolphins game I don’t hang on him. Brown stopped, and then restarted running. The pass to Beasley was tight, but there probably should have been a flag for defensive holding on the play, and the Allen fumble was a missed assignment — was being smothered right at the snap. Those are the areas that need to be cleaned up; not necessarily Allen’s red zone play.
Now it’s the Bengals. Definitely a step up in playoff weight class, and I might have been inclined to lean towards taking Cincinnati if this game was in southern Ohio. It isn’t, however, and I think this is where home field will play a huge factor. Both teams will be emotional. Their first head to head encounter following the shared Hamlin experience. It will be mentally fatiguing for both sides, and for the fans as well. This will be more than football. It’ll be emotional and passionate, and I expect the play on both sides to demonstrate that on the field.I’m taking the Bills in this game because it’s at home. I think a collision course in Atlanta is inevitable, but of course you can’t game ahead. The Bengals come first.