House Of Cards
The NFL Playoffs are here. Here are some thoughts, but before I begin I’ll just put this out there, again, that these posts happen when they happen. I try to write more, but under some personal constraints that I hope will end in the upcoming months the situation is just what it is.
It has been a bit of a roller coaster for the Bills this season. That sounds crazy for a 13-3 football team, but the cliche has a measure of merit. The season ended emotionally with the Hamlin medical situation, but at least it ended on a positive note with (at the time of this writing) his continued improvement. We all hope and pray each passing day is better than the one that came before.
From a football perspective the Bills record speaks for itself. So does their red zone numbers, but one has to be cognizant of the fact those red zone numbers should be better. The turnovers in the red zone are outright appalling, and a case could be made the Bills could be the best team in the NFL if those turnovers were cut in half. Which of course is just speculation, but those red zone turnovers do exist, and it does hold them back. Which goes back to what I said earlier in the year the Bills most difficult opponent is the Bills themselves.
Allen had cleaned up some of his more reckless throws. We all know he’s still going to throw them. Bills Mafia want him to throw them because oftentimes he’s the only one that can complete that touchdown pass. There’s a fine line between reckless, and overly reckless. He’s certainly cleaned up the overly ones. We know they’re going to happen – such as the one where he was hit during the throw in the emotional finale against the Patriots. It’s not just Allen passing either. We’ve seen various fumbles as well. If they can keep that to a minimum, like all teams, they’ll be in a lot better shape.
The more bigger concern I feel is the defense. Statistical dominance is noted on paper, but the eye test says they struggle stopping the run. Teams can run on Buffalo. The Dolphins did it. The Jets. The Packers. Even the Patriots in the final game. The thing is it still comes down to the Bills offense. The more they can score forces the opposition to get jittery and abandon the run too early. In other situations even with a manageable deficit Bills opponents occasionally get pass happy. The Bills have had their share of defensive injuries all season – in the September loss against the Dolphins it was very apparent and a sign of things to come. Of course every team has injuries. We know that, but the team is what it is and the run defense is an exposed weakness. If the Bills are going to advance to the Superbowl they will need to minimize this damage. The big runs are going to happen. It’ll be up to the offense to grab a sizable lead and get the opposition to abandon that run early.
Specifically, for the playoff game against the Dolphins, I don’t see an upset. I had been saying most of the season the Dolphins were not for real, and they weren’t. They fell on very predictable hard times in December when their house of cards crumbled. They were lucky they drew the Jets (another house of cards) in the final week to sneak into the playoffs. 11-6 isn’t a statement win.Expect a Bills victory by 4 p.m. eastern on Sunday.